What’s going to win Best Indie Game at The Game Awards?

The Game Awards’ most controversial category is probably Best Independent Game, for a few reasons. Among a whole mess of hard-to-define categories like Best Game Direction or Best Action/Adventure Game, it might be the hardest — and it’s susceptible to being drawn into the constantly raging debate about what constitutes an independent game. In 2023, for example, Dave the Diver was nominated, a game developed and published by Mintrocket, which is a division of South Korean publishing giant Nexon. Meanwhile, eventual Game of the Year winner Baldur’s Gate 3 — which was self-published by its independent developer, Larian Studios — was not.

The Game Awards’ official description of Best Independent Game says it is “awarded to a game with a higher degree of risk tolerance by its creators, produced outside of the traditional publisher system.” It’s a hedging description that dances around the vague aesthetic and economic attributes that gamers often ascribe to indie games: lower budgets, distinctive art and design, and less obvious commercialism.

The definition of an indie game is in the eye of the beholder, in other words, and just as in other categories, The Game Awards’ voting jury tends to show its preconceptions and the limits of its collective taste in the nominees and winners. Games from boutique publishers specializing in “indie-style” productions, like Devolver Digital and Annapurna Interactive (RIP?), often feature alongside self-published games. And some of the best-reviewed independent releases are overlooked in favor of palatable, relatively popular games that fit within the broadest definition of “indie.” In 2022, for example, hit kitty adventure Stray won, while the influential Vampire Survivors wasn’t nominated.

Some contenders get siphoned off into other categories, like Best Debut Indie Game for a studio’s first release, or the similarly diffuse Games For Impact, which recognizes “a thought-provoking game with a profound pro-social meaning or message,” by TGA’s definition. In 2023, Cocoon’s votes were split between the Debut and main categories; it won in Debut, despite being directed by star indie auteur Jeppe Carlsen (Limbo and Inside). The jury often nominates acclaimed games like Kentucky Route Zero, Chicory: A Colorful Tale, and Gris in Games For Impact — games that might otherwise have made their mark in the main category.

All of that said, 2024 presents a very strong crop of contenders with overlap between high Metacritic ratings, a decent level of popularity, and that indefinable indie-ness. Read on for our ranked list of the frontrunners, followed by some other contenders.

Indie Game frontrunners

1. Balatro

Why it could win: Poker roguelite Balatro has probably been 2024’s single most-played game among critics — and, crucially for success at The Game Awards, it’s broadly popular, too, with over 2 million copies sold. It has a Metascore of 90 and a recently released mobile version to refresh everyone’s memory and make it even more ubiquitous. Also, it’s great.

Weaknesses: Despite some hipster touches, like the woozy retro presentation and synthwave music, Balatro is a purely systemic game that doesn’t possess the “artistic” qualities that some associate with indie games. Also, some voters might be content to nominate it in the Debut Indie Game category (or Best Mobile Game, where it’s now also eligible).

2. UFO 50

Why it could win: Many indie games play the nostalgia card — like last year’s winner, retro role-playing game Sea of Stars — but few do it with the astonishing breadth, depth, and design virtuosity of Mossmouth’s collection of 50 imagined 1980s games. UFO 50 is the indie critical darling of an exceptionally strong year. It also contains so much to discover that the conversation around it isn’t fading away as fast as you see with some other games.

Weaknesses: With no structure to its sprawling collection, UFO 50 is overwhelming at first, and many of the games are difficult to get into (or just plain difficult). It’s not quite as accessible as most past winners of this award.

3. Animal Well

Why it could win: You don’t get more “indie” than a mysterious pixel-art Metroidvania about spooky animals; this could be the platonic ideal of an indie game, and it’s acclaimed by critics, with a 91 Metascore. Another plus: It’s published by Bigmode, the new label led by popular YouTuber Dunkey, giving it a minor fame boost.

Weaknesses: Although it sold pretty well, the buzz around Animal Well has subsided since its May release. It’s also so inscrutable that some in the voting jury may just bounce off it. Like Balatro, its votes may be split between this category and Debut Indie Game.

4. Satisfactory

Why it could win: Coffee Stain’s factory-building game emerged from years of early access in September, and it’s become a major hit — it broke into Steam’s top 10 most-played on the occasion of its 1.0 release. For popularity, there’s nothing else in this crowd to match it, and it has reviewed extremely well, too.

Weaknesses: If anything, Satisfactory’s scale counts against it; after years of development funded by other Coffee Stain hits like Goat Simulator and Deep Rock Galactic, it has an expansiveness that most don’t associate with indie games. It might be more likely to crop up in the Best Sim/Strategy Game category.

5. The Rise of the Golden Idol (upcoming)

Why it could win: With a release date of Nov. 12, The Rise of the Golden Idol will just sneak inside TGA’s eligibility window. It’s a sequel to 2022’s fantastic detective mystery The Case of the Golden Idol, which was overlooked at The Game Awards that year, but has built quite a following since. The voting jury could be keen to make up for that oversight by recognizing the sequel.

Weaknesses: Eligibility for the 2024 Game Awards has a cutoff date of Nov. 22, but realistically most of the jury are compiling and submitting their votes earlier than that, so Rise is cutting things a bit close. Much depends on how early developer Color Gray Games and publisher Playstack (which also published Balatro) can get review codes out to journalists and creators.

Other contenders

Thank Goodness You’re Here!: This absurdist comedy adventure about life in a crumbling, eccentric Northern English town has been a big hit with critics, with a 90 Metascore, but it might be a little too esoteric — not to mention regionally specific — to land with TGA’s diverse international jury.

Lorelei and the Laser Eyes: Simogo is an effortlessly stylish and sophisticated developer; publisher Annapurna has a great track record in this category; and critics usually like to show love for dense and demanding puzzle adventures like Lorelei and the Laser Eyes. But Animal Well has edged it out in terms of profile and acclaim, and maybe some of its puzzles are a little too obscure.

Tactical Breach Wizards: Suspicious Developments’ Tactical Breach Wizards is funny and sharp on video games’ unquestioning militarism while still being a meaty, rewarding tactics game in its own right. Tactics isn’t a core genre for the indie category, though.

The Plucky Squire: All Possible Futures’ charming storybook adventure was much hyped, and in many ways it looks like a perfect candidate for this category, but its sales and critical reception have been underwhelming.

Neva: Neva developer Nomada Studio won the Games For Impact award in 2019 with Gris, and its way with heartfelt storytelling and beautiful visual design is sure to go over well with the judging panel. The game is getting warm reviews, too.