To say that Baldur's Gate 3 was underestimated before its full release last month is an understatement, so much so that Microsoft and others did not expect Larian Studios' hit RPG to become one of the biggest games of the year.
That surfaced today as part of the latest massive leak of documents from June's Microsoft vs. FTC trial, which included an email chain published in May 2022 between multiple Microsoft executives that focused on Microsoft scrambling to fill a "huge hole" in its 2022 games lineup. The email chain included a list of potential third-party games to add to its subscription service Game Pass, all of which were slated to be released throughout the 2023 financial year.
One of those was Baldur's Gate 3 which, under the "Notes" column for Baldur's Gate 3, was dubbed a "second-run Stadia PC RPG." The list also rated Baldur's Gate 3's "Wow Factor" as "Hub," but it remains unclear what that means, though it is important to note other games on that list, including Return to Monkey Island, also received that rating.
It also estimated that it would cost $5 million to secure Baldur's Gate 3 as a day-and-date Game Pass release.
The email has certainly put Microsoft under scrutiny as Baldur's Gate 3 has proved to become anything but a "second-run Stadia RPG." Though as Larian Studios Director of Publishing Michael Douse points out, Microsoft was not the only one who thought this way, and that same energy of dismissiveness was also directed to Divinity Original Sin 2, as he mentions. Posting on X (formerly Twitter), Douse explained how "everyone else" felt that way.
"Comes with the genre," Douse noted. "There just isn’t any existing data that could have told anyone how BG3 was going to perform. We just had to take giant spooky leaps."
In their defence, so did everyone else. Same with DOS2. Comes with the genre, and the way we approach things, and the way we execute things. There just isn’t any existing data that could have told anyone how BG3 was going to perform. We just had to take giant spooky leaps. https://t.co/BgLyW4cZZx
— Very AFK (@Cromwelp) September 19, 2023
Larien CEO Swen Vincke was a little more tongue-in-cheek, writing, "I'd love to meet that analyst."
I'd love to meet that analyst https://t.co/ej2W7DJoV8
— Swen Vincke @where? (@LarAtLarian) September 19, 2023
Baldur's Gate 3 was originally announced for Windows and the now-defunct cloud gaming service Google Stadia, with the early access version released on both platforms in 2020. With Stadia shut down earlier this year, the full release version for that platform was canceled, with PC remaining the first platform to recieve a full version of Baldur's Gate 3. PS5 and macOS ports followed roughly a month after the PC release. An Xbox Series X/S version is also in development with a 2023 release window.
After leaving Early Access, Baldur's Gate 3 became a huge success. And, to be fair, even Larian itself was surprised, with Vincke noting that the game has far surpassed the studios expectations.
In our review of Baldur's Gate 3, which we scored a 10 out of 10, we said "[w]ith crunchy, tactical RPG combat, a memorable story with complex characters, highly polished cinematic presentation, and a world that always rewards exploration and creativity, Baldur's Gate 3 is the new high-water mark for CRPGs."
Microsoft's underestmiation of Baldur's Gate 3 is one of many revelations coming out of a massive court document leak this week. For more on what else surfaced, check out our roundup focused on all the key takeaways from the big Xbox leaks.
Taylor is a Reporter at IGN. You can follow her on Twitter @TayNixster.
