This year marks the 10th anniversary of The Game Awards, and in that time Geoff Keighley’s annual event has established itself quite firmly as the leading awards ceremony for the game industry — the Oscars of gaming. It remains promotionally overstuffed to the point that it’s still arguably better known for trailers than awards, but that’s changing. And although its winners tend to be pretty conservative, they are broadly representative of the critical consensus. Its voting body is composed of a wide range of international games media, so the chances are your favorite publications’ and critics’ picks factor into The Game Awards. (Polygon’s do.)
The top prize of the night is, of course, Game of the Year — and there are clear indicators of what makes a Game of the Year at The Game Awards, based on a decade of data. On Nov. 18, The Game Awards announced the nominees for this and all the other categories, mostly confirming those indicators. Still, it’s a particularly open race in 2024, with no cut-and-dried frontrunner. Below, after crunching numbers and taking temperatures, we pick the likely Game of the Year winner and rank the rest of the six nominees in order of their likeliness to win. We’ll find out if we got it right when the winner is announced at The Game Awards on Dec. 12.
Update (Nov. 26): Between now and the awards ceremony, we’ll be fleshing out our TGA prognostication with predictions for the other categories as well. In this first update, we predict the winners of Games for Impact, Independent Game, Debut Indie Game, Ongoing Game, Mobile Game, Multiplayer, Adaptation, Most Anticipated, and Players’ Voice — and it’s looking like a great night for Balatro. Also in this update, we’ve moved Black Myth: Wukong up a little in the GOTY ranking on the strength of its triumph at the Golden Joystick Awards.
What’s going to win GOTY?
1. Astro Bot
Why it could win: With a 94 Metascore at time of writing, Team Asobi’s delightful platform game enjoys the strongest critical consensus of any game this year (and rightly so) bar Elden Ring’s Shadow of the Erdtree expansion. It’s also technically dazzling, which is historically a strong plus in GOTY consideration.
Weaknesses: Games nominated in the Family category, as Astro Bot is, very rarely break through in the main competition. However, it also scored a nomination in the Action/Adventure category, which has been the source of lots of past winners.
Momentum (holding steady): Astro Bot has united a broad swath of critics and fans like no other game this year; its quality is self-evident, its vibe is upbeat and totally unproblematic, and few critics are immune to its naked nostalgia appeal. At seven nominations, it’s tied with Final Fantasy 7 Rebirth as the most-nominated game. In a confusing year, it’s looking like the default choice, and the game to beat so far.
The rest of the GOTY nominees, ranked
2. Metaphor: ReFantazio
Why it could win: The distinctive role-playing games of Atlus’ Studio Zero have been critical darlings for a long time, but Persona 5 (which was nominated for GOTY and won Best RPG in 2017) propelled them to a new level of popularity and acclaim. Now Metaphor is here to ride that wave. With solid game mechanics, strong storytelling, and memorable characters in a favored genre, this could be the moment Atlus’ brand of RPGs outshines genre stalwart Final Fantasy. Despite not having Persona brand recognition, it’s already Atlus’ fastest-selling game, too.
Weaknesses: Despite their rising popularity, Atlus’ games still operate in more of an expanding niche than in the mainstream, and the old-school turn-based combat is a turn-off for some (though you might have said similar about last year’s winner, Baldur’s Gate 3).
Momentum (slightly ?): Metaphor’s Metascore has settled at an amazing 94, and it’s such a substantial game that most critics who committed to it are still deep in the weeds, discovering the delicious complexities of its late-game battle system. It has six nominations, second only to Astro Bot and Final Fantasy 7 Rebirth. But now that public voting enters the mix, its slightly less broad appeal might hurt it.
3. Final Fantasy 7 Rebirth
Why it could win: As a big production from a famous series in a favored genre, with strong story and performance elements and a 90-plus Metacritic rating, Final Fantasy 7 Rebirth has no peer this year. The game also benefits from rabid fan support in the PlayStation community (it’s a PS5 exclusive), and it won Most Anticipated in 2023.
Weaknesses: Sales were slightly underwhelming, according to publisher Square Enix itself, and the critical consensus around it is not quite as unanimous as that 92 Metascore would suggest.
Momentum (slightly ?): For a while it seemed outmaneuvered by Metaphor: ReFantazio’s recency bias and greater critical cred, but Rebirth has bounced back with a strong set of nominations, including in the key Game Direction, Performance, and Narrative categories. It will likely benefit from support in the public vote, too.
4. Black Myth: Wukong
Why it could win: This Chinese action-adventure is a big technical showpiece in a favored genre, and it seems to have strong popular support: In GOTY discussions online, it is one of the two most-mentioned games, alongside FF7 Rebirth. Even though the public vote only counts for 10% of the final vote, these vocal fans are sure to rally around it.
Weaknesses: With an 81 Metascore, Black Myth: Wukong is at the lower end of critical consensus when it comes to Game of the Year nominees. And while it’s a massive seller, much of its audience seems to be in China, which only has a small presence on the visible voting jury. Developer Game Science is politically controversial, which might deter some voters, too.
Momentum (? from No. 6): Wukong is a true dark horse, overcoming a measure of critical snobbery to earn China its first GOTY nomination and delight its legion of fans. That fanbase is clearly activated enough to push it to a surprise win in the Ultimate Game of the Year category at the 100% public-voted Golden Joystick Awards.
5. Balatro
Why it could win: In terms of indie darlings, poker roguelike Balatro is right up there with the likes of Animal Well and UFO 50, with a 90 Metascore. It’s also more widely and consistently played — not only is it popular, but the people who like it are probably still playing it, and unlikely to stop before voting. It might be the stickiest game of the year.
Weaknesses: It’s a purely systemic card game with zero narrative elements, something that does not historically go over well at The Game Awards. There’s also a question mark over how broad its international appeal is, an important factor for TGA’s diverse voting jury.
Momentum (? from No. 4): Balatro’s convenient new mobile version has arrived at the perfect moment to remind the jury why they couldn’t stop playing it back in February. And it has overperformed in terms of nominations, with five under its belt — including in Game Direction, where games of its type rarely if ever appear. Not to be ruled out.
6. Elden Ring: Shadow of the Erdtree
Why it could win: Shadow of the Erdtree is a major expansion to the game that won GOTY in 2022. It’s also the single best-reviewed release of the year, still in the top spot on Metacritic’s list, although Astro Bot and Metaphor have since equalized with it. The reverence people have for Elden Ring and the FromSoftware project in general is still a force to be reckoned with.
Weaknesses: It’s an expansion. Its eligibility for Game of the Year came as a surprise to some members of the voting jury — but setting that aside, the perception of it as something additional, rather than a wholly new work, will definitely hold it back.
Momentum (? from No. 5): Erdtree has secured four nominations, including for Best Role-Playing Game, and muscled its way much further toward the front of the pack than we thought possible for a DLC.
What’s going to win the other categories?
Best Independent Game
- Animal Well
- Balatro
- Lorelei and the Laser Eyes
- Neva
- UFO 50
There’s very little chance that LocalThunk isn’t taking home the award for Best Indie Game on Dec. 12. It stands to reason that the only indie game to crack into Game of the Year will have enough support from the jury to top the indie category: Every time an indie game has been nominated for GOTY before — Inside in 2016, Celeste in 2018, Hades in 2020, and Stray in 2022 — it’s gone this way. Chalk this one up for Balatro.
Best Debut Indie Game
- Animal Well
- Balatro
- Manor Lords
- Pacific Drive
- The Plucky Squire
Here’s another Balatro win you can lock in straight away. If you think the jury might feel motivated to spread the love and award, say, Animal Well in this category, think again. Every time the eventual Independent Game winner has been nominated for Debut as well, it’s won both: Cuphead in 2017, Disco Elysium in 2019, Kena: Bridge of Spirits in 2021, and Stray in 2022. Once again, the precedents could not be more clear.
Games for Impact
- Closer the Distance
- Indika
- Neva
- Life Is Strange: Double Exposure
- Senua’s Saga: Hellblade 2
- Tales of Kenzera: Zau
Games for Impact is one of the hardest categories to predict — in part because it’s so poorly understood. TGA defines it as “for a thought-provoking game with a pro-social meaning or message,” but it’s up to the jury to interpret what this means and how to quantify it. There’s plenty of pedigree in the lineup: the Life Is Strange series is a two-time winner of this award, Neva developer Nomada Studio has won it before with Gris, and the first Hellblade won in 2017. Closer the Distance is the kind of moving, personal story that the jury tends to favor. But I’m predicting Hellblade 2 will win for the simple reason that it’s probably the most recognizable name to the largest number of jury voters.
Best Ongoing Game
- Destiny 2
- Diablo 4
- Final Fantasy 14
- Fortnite
- Helldivers 2
The Game Awards’ most stable category, intended to reward live-service games, settled down a bit after 2023’s surprise win for interloper Cyberpunk 2077. Fortnite and FF14 have both won it twice, while Destiny 2 is on its sixth nomination without a win. But I think the jury will be keen to pick a fresh new entrant, and they can vote for Helldivers 2 in Multiplayer. Diablo 4 has a great story this year, with both its game-redefining Loot Reborn season and a strong expansion in Vessel of Hatred, so it’s my prediction.
Best Multiplayer
- Call of Duty: Black Ops 6
- Helldivers 2
- Super Mario Party Jamboree
- Tekken 8
- Warhammer 40,000: Space Marine 2
I can’t see the jury passing up the opportunity to reward one of the most sensational breakout successes of the year, Helldivers 2. The rest of the field looks either staid or incidental next to Arrowhead Game Studios’ viral hit, and the TGA voting jury loves to pick a co-op game for Best Multiplayer when one is nominated.
Best Mobile Game
- AFK Journey
- Balatro
- Pokémon Trading Card Game Pocket
- Wuthering Waves
- Zenless Zone Zero
The same logic that makes Balatro an inevitable winner in the Independent category also applies here. With enough support to get nominated for GOTY, it will surely walk a less important category — and this one is less competitive than the indie awards. Mark my words, Balatro is going home with three awards.
Best Adaptation
- Arcane
- Fallout
- Knuckles
- Like a Dragon: Yakuza
- Tomb Raider: The Legend of Lara Croft
The race for this award, for the best adaptation of video games in other media, is surely between Prime Video’s Fallout and Netflix’s League of Legends-based animated series Arcane. Arcane is the more critically acclaimed of the two, but Fallout is the highest-profile, and has probably been watched by the most jury members. In a tight race, Fallout is my prediction.
Most Anticipated Game
- Death Stranding 2: On the Beach
- Ghost of Yōtei
- Grand Theft Auto 6
- Metroid Prime 4: Beyond
- Monster Hunter Wilds
This award is even more locked-in than Balatro’s Best Indie win. In this 100% fan-voted category, there is no chance that Grand Theft Auto 6 doesn’t prevail. In fact, Rockstar could probably take home its 2025 GOTY award now, as well — if only it could guarantee the game is actually coming out next year.
Players’ Voice
- Black Myth: Wukong
Players’ Voice is another 100% fan-voted category, and one for which there are no nominees yet — a short list of 30 games will be revealed on Dec. 2, which will be whittled down to five, then one winner over three rounds. As proved by its surprise Game of the Year win in another public vote at the Golden Joystick Awards, Black Myth: Wukong has the most activated fan base of any of this year’s frontrunning games, so it seems destined to win.
The Game Awards winners will be revealed during the show on Dec. 12.
Source：https://www.polygon.com/awards/450195/game-of-the-year-game-awards-frontrunners
